ASIA

BILL EMMOTT, author, July 1, 2008
CZIKOWSKY: Where do you see South Korea and North Korea fitting nto these power struggles between Japan, China, and India?
EMMOTT: I think North Korea is the most dangerous spot in Asia, in terms of these power struggles. Currently, we are feeling a bit more sanguine about it thanks to North Korea’s apparent commencement of denuclearization. But my worry is different: it is about the future of the regime and about what happens when the current dictator, Kim Jong-Il, dies. He is 66, is the second of a family dynasty, and has appointed no successor. His own family doesn’t look capable of succeeding him. So my worry is that when he dies there will be a big internal fight within North Korea, and that at that point China and perhaps other neighboring powers might be tempted to step in—either to exploit an opportunity or to prevent others from doing so. This could happen very quickly indeed—in days or just weeks. Such a time will hold a very real risk of conflict between the two big powers—China, Japan, South Korean, and even the U.S.
South Korea meanwhile finds itself squeezed between all these powers. Economically, it is increasingly linked to China, but it wants to keep its options open. Its long time ally, the U.S., is unpopular among the young and among left-wingers, hence recent huge protests about U.S. beef imports. But many people still favor the U.S. alliance. South Korea looks deeply divided on the issue.
CZIKOWSKY: Bangladesh is surrounded by all this enormous economic growth. How much of all this growth is assisting Bangladesh in improving its economy and living conditions?
EMMOTT: Not a great deal, is the answer, as trade barriers remain too high both between Bangladesh and India and between Bangladesh and China. But Bangladesh has benefited from the rapid growth of the global economy in recent years, as it has provided especially its textiles industry with strong markets. Even so, the country remains very poor and very troubled.