INDIA

STEPHEN COHEN, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow, July 19, 2005
CZIKOWSKY: First, and obviously, how is Pakistan taking to this (agreement between the United States and India to share nuclear technology and information)? Second, and also very importantly, aren’t we sending mixed signals to China: please be our friend, but, just in case, we want to be able to destroy you if need be? Will the negative reactions outweigh the potential benefits of this move?
COHEN: You are right to ask these tough questions—politics, especially international politics, is inherently tough, otherwise these issues would be taken care of by normal diplomacy.
Pakistan will regard the recent U.S.-India agreement as further evidence of a.) India’s attempt to become South Asia’s dominant power, and b.) that the Americans are willing, at least to some degree, to help India do this. Pakistan will in turn try to improve its relations with China and even Russia, while using the Americans to constrain India as best as it can. The real question is whether this move will make it easier for India to ignore Kashmir.
Some Chinese will regard this agreement as evidence that India is lining up to contain China, others will recognize that India may be trying to “free ride” on American power, and that India and China can work out a strategic accommodation in the long run, both concerned about American strategic dominance. As they say, “time will tell”, in that the calculations are subtle and complicated, but I am personally convinced that if India exercises restraint, they have promised not to test nuclear weapons which would enable them to develop a second generation device—then this will not be seen as an anti-China development. Big questions remain: will a more powerful India be more accommodating or less.