LEBANON

KATE SEELYE, Frontline/World Producer, May 18, 2005
CZIKOWSKY: What is the breakdown of the Lebanese people according to what percentages belong to different religions? Do most people within the same religious group hold similar political beliefs? In sum, how large a role does religion play into whom Lebanese people believe should govern them?
SEELYE: The Shia make up the largest religious group at bout 40%. Then you have the Christians who make up about 33%. The remainder are Sunnis and Druze. The Lebanese do tend to relate along religious lines, although not exclusively. For instance, the Greek Orthodox and the Maronites tend to have very different political views, even though they are both Christian sects. The big challenge in Lebanon, now that it is free of Syrian control, is to encourage Lebanese to being identifying along national, rather than religious lines. That will entail the creation of national political parties that promote non-sectarian issues, such as employment for all, welfare for all, betting hosing for all, etc. Currently most Lebanese believe that only a leader of their own religion can be trusted to fight for their interests, so by and large Shia will vote for a Shai leader, a Maronite for a Maronite, etc. That needs to change and many Lebanese recognize that.

PAUL MITCHELL, film producer-director, July 20, 2005
CZIKOWSKY: How deep are divisions between the various ethnic groups? Would you assess the divisions as resolvable, or do you see some taking perhaps a generation or two to overcome? Despite these divisions, do you see hope that various groups can eventually agree, given the right circumstances, to work together and avoid violence?
MITCHELL: The divisions between the groups are real, but it’s hard to say how long lasting. There are plenty of people who see themselves as Lebanese first, and members of their community second. And there are plenty more who don’t. What is interesting to me was the people of say 30-40 years old who spent a long time outside the country during way, they all tell you that OUTSIDE Lebanon, the differences tend to fade. But once they are back home…The most one can say at any given time that there is no violence now, not like 15 years ago.

FAWAZ GERGES, Sarah Lawrence College International Affairs and Middle Eastern Studies Professor, July 25, 2006
CZIKOWSKY: I read the arguments that Hezbollah can not be defeated because it is not just a small band of fighters, but it is a state of mind that is supported by a large number of people in Lebanon and other surrounding countries. Aren’t there other large scale states of mind? Aren’t there also large numbers of Muslims who want peace? If so, is their voice getting weaker or might it gain strength someday soon?
GERGES: There is a misunderstanding in Israel and the United States that Israel can defeat Hezbollah, or Party of God, on the battlefield and rid Lebanon of pro-Iranian Shiite’s militancy. Here are some facts to consider.
First, Hezbollah is not just a militia; it is a social movement that is deeply rooted within the Lebanese Shiite community which represents 38 percent of the population. Hezbollah has a large social and welfare infrastructure that provides social services to hundreds of thousands of people—schools, clinics, daycare centers, and much needed employment opportunities.
Equally important, Hezbollah provides a large segment of the Shiite community, historically disadvantages and marginalized, with a sense of identity and pride. The hammering away at Hezbollah will likely deepen the feeling of victim-hood within the Shiite community and turn it against Israel and the West.
Secondly, contrary to the conventional wisdom, Hezbollah is not like a rotten tooth that can be plucked out easily. Hezbollah is one of the most pivotal political players on the Lebanese landscape. It has two ministers in the current government and a large popular base of support in the country and the region.
Thirdly, since the mid-1980s, Hezbollah has proved itself on the battlefield against Israeli military might. It forced Israel to withdraw under fire from a small strip of land in southern Lebanon in 2000. No other Arab state or a group has been able to militarily defeat Israel on the battlefield. Hezbollah is the most powerful paramilitary non-state organization in the region. Its military and organizational skills dwarf those of Palestinian Hamas and other militant groups like Al Qaeda. It is a power to be reckoned with. Israeli leaders have already scaled their demands in the last few days because they have come to appreciate the costliness of aiming too high in its fight against Hezbollah.

MICHAEL FLETCHER, Washington Post White House Reporter, August 4, 2006
CZIKOWSKY: How well is the Lebanese government holding up, as of today? It is sad that a democratic government may be pushed aside by a country searching for a more militant stance against Israel and the United States.
FLETCHER: It has to be struggling. Bombs are raining down over much of the country. A quarter of the population is displaced. The infrastructure is being battered. It seems to me that those tings tend to radicalize a population.

MICHAEL YOUNG, Opinion (Lebanon) Editor and SAUL SINGER Jerusalem Post columnist, August 15, 2006
CZIKOWSKY: What is your advice on achieving a permanent solution, not just a temporary cease fire? Will it take a few generations to decide that peace is better and living with respect of each other is best, or can there be a general acceptance of peace within the current generation? If so, how can it be achieved?
YOUNG: I’m very pessimistic about achieving a permanent solution in south Lebanon. Hezbollah won’t disarm, and its adversaries in Lebanon are too frightened of provoking a civil war to challenge the party by demanding more forcefully that it bend to the national consensus and surrender its weapons. This is an impossible situation, and one bound to lead to more violence in the future.
SINGER: A permanent solution ultimately means dealing with the root cause of the problem, namely Syria and Iran. This is an opportunity to demonstrate that supporting proxy terrorist armies is a sanction-able international offense. The war against terrorism is not serious so long as states like Iran and Syria can support terrorism with impunity.